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Agropecuario vs Atletico DE Rafaela Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 28 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 18:00

Agropecuario

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLD

UPCOMING

Atletico DE Rafaela

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.7%0-111.6%0-23.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.1%1-111.7%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.7%2-16.0%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.6%3-12.0%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 51.3% 1.95 -13.4%

Draw 31.7% 35.7% 2.80 -11.2%

Away win 24.0% 22.7% 4.40 +3.4%

Over 2.5 34.6% 37.0% 2.70 -6.6%

Over 3.5 13.9% 18.2% 5.50 -14.1%

BTTS 42.4% 41.7% 2.40 +1.8%

Home O1.5 30.8% 43.7% 2.29 -29.5%

Away O1.5 14.0% 19.8% 5.05 -17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 296 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -6.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob42.4%

H 44% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.1%

#2 0–0 20.7%

#3 0–1 11.6%

#4 1–1 11.7%

#5 2–0 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Agropecuario1.0

Atletico DE Rafaela0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.6% · O3.5 PROB 13.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AGROPECUARIO · PPG 1.69

ATLETICO DE RAFAELA · PPG 0.69

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

44%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.46, combined xG 1.57 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Agropecuario (H) 44.4%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -13.4%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -11.2%

Atletico DE Rafaela (A) 24.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Agropecuario face Atletico DE Rafaela in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Agropecuario a 44% chance, the draw 32% and Atletico DE Rafaela 24%, so Agropecuario are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Agropecuario and 0.6 for Atletico DE Rafaela (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Agropecuario are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.69 for Atletico DE Rafaela. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +1.8%.

Agropecuario vs Atletico DE Rafaela Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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