Today / Argentina - Primera Nacional / Almagro vs Gimnasia Jujuy

Almagro vs Gimnasia Jujuy Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 28 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 18:30

Almagro

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLDW

UPCOMING

Gimnasia Jujuy

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 51% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-18.4%0-24.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.9%1-112.4%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.1%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.7%3-14.5%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 36.4% 2.75 +25.1%

Draw 26.1% 34.5% 2.90 -14.6%

Away win 28.5% 38.2% 2.62 -15.2%

Over 2.5 50.4% 40.0% 2.50 +26.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 20.0% 5.00 +26.1%

BTTS 52.9% 50.0% 2.00 +5.8%

Home O1.5 39.9% 32.5% 3.08 +22.9%

Away O1.5 26.6% 34.1% 2.93 -13.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 296 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -6.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 0–0 8.7%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almagro1.5

Gimnasia Jujuy1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMAGRO · PPG 1.62

GIMNASIA JUJUY · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

51%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Almagro (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +25.1%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -14.6%

Gimnasia Jujuy (A) 28.5%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Almagro face Gimnasia Jujuy in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almagro a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Gimnasia Jujuy 28%, so Almagro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Almagro and 1.0 for Gimnasia Jujuy (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almagro are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.00 for Gimnasia Jujuy. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +42.2%.

Almagro vs Gimnasia Jujuy Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera Nacional Predictions