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Club Atlético Güemes vs Gimnasia Y Tiro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 28 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 20:00

Club Atlético Güemes

PPG 1.15 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDDD

UPCOMING

Gimnasia Y Tiro

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-112.2%0-26.8%0-32.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.0%1-113.4%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.6%2-17.4%2-24.1%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.4%3-12.7%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 36.4% 2.75 -2.6%

Draw 30.6% 35.7% 2.80 -14.3%

Away win 34.0% 38.2% 2.62 -10.9%

Over 2.5 42.7% 34.7% 2.88 +23.0%

Over 3.5 21.6% 15.4% 6.50 +24.2%

BTTS 48.0% 45.5% 2.20 +5.6%

Home O1.5 30.9% 28.6% 3.50 +8.2%

Away O1.5 33.2% 28.6% 3.50 +16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 296 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -6.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.0%

D 31% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 10.9%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 0–1 12.2%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Atlético Güemes1.1

Gimnasia Y Tiro1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB ATLÉTICO GÜEMES · PPG 1.15

GIMNASIA Y TIRO · PPG 1.15

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.02, combined xG 2.22 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Club Atlético Güemes (H) 35.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -2.6%

Draw 30.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -14.3%

Gimnasia Y Tiro (A) 34.0%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Atlético Güemes face Gimnasia Y Tiro in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Atlético Güemes a 35% chance, the draw 31% and Gimnasia Y Tiro 34%, so Club Atlético Güemes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Club Atlético Güemes and 1.1 for Gimnasia Y Tiro (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Atlético Güemes are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 1.15 for Gimnasia Y Tiro. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +30.9%.

Club Atlético Güemes vs Gimnasia Y Tiro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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