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Deportivo Madryn vs Ciudad de Bolívar Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 28 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 19:00

Deportivo Madryn

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWL

UPCOMING

Ciudad de Bolívar

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDW

// Model verdict

Home 57% chance

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-17.5%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.3%1-111.1%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-18.3%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.8%3-14.1%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-12.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 58.8% 1.70 -9.4%

Draw 25.5% 32.3% 3.10 -12.6%

Away win 21.2% 18.2% 5.50 +10.0%

Over 2.5 42.7% 38.5% 2.60 +11.0%

Over 3.5 20.9% 18.2% 5.50 +9.0%

BTTS 42.6% 42.0% 2.38 +1.4%

Home O1.5 39.9% 47.6% 2.10 -16.2%

Away O1.5 15.4% 15.4% 6.50 +0.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 296 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -6.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob42.6%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.3%

#2 2–0 13.6%

#3 0–0 12.3%

#4 1–1 11.1%

#5 0–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Madryn1.5

Ciudad de Bolívar0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MADRYN · PPG 1.92

CIUDAD DE BOLÍVAR · PPG 1.54

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Madryn (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -9.4%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.6%

Ciudad de Bolívar (A) 21.2%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Madryn face Ciudad de Bolívar in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Madryn a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Ciudad de Bolívar 21%, so Deportivo Madryn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Deportivo Madryn and 0.6 for Ciudad de Bolívar (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Madryn are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.54 for Ciudad de Bolívar. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +24.9%.

Deportivo Madryn vs Ciudad de Bolívar Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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