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Deportivo Maipu vs Patronato Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 28 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 19:00

Deportivo Maipu

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

UPCOMING

Patronato

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

Home 51% chance

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+12.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-15.9%0-21.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.3%1-110.0%1-22.9%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.8%2-18.6%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.5%3-14.9%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-13.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.7% 48.8% 2.05 +12.1%

Draw 23.9% 34.5% 2.90 -18.4%

Away win 21.4% 26.3% 3.80 -11.2%

Over 2.5 50.4% 38.5% 2.60 +31.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 18.2% 5.50 +34.7%

BTTS 48.0% 45.5% 2.20 +5.6%

Home O1.5 49.9% 40.0% 2.50 +24.8%

Away O1.5 14.8% 23.1% 4.33 -21.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 296 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -6.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.0%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.6 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.3%

#2 2–0 14.8%

#3 0–0 10.1%

#4 1–1 10.0%

#5 0–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Maipu1.7

Patronato0.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MAIPU · PPG 2.00

PATRONATO · PPG 0.77

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

51%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.13 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Maipu (H) 54.7%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +12.1%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -18.4%

Patronato (A) 21.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Maipu face Patronato in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Maipu a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Patronato 21%, so Deportivo Maipu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Deportivo Maipu and 0.6 for Patronato (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Maipu are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.77 for Patronato. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +35.5%.

Deportivo Maipu vs Patronato Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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