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Tristan Suarez vs San Martin Tucuman Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 28 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:00

Tristan Suarez

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

UPCOMING

San Martin Tucuman

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDWD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 43.5% — a clear edge.

+20.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.3%0-17.9%0-21.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.7%1-110.5%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.4%2-17.0%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.4%3-13.1%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-11.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 43.5% 2.30 +20.5%

Draw 26.2% 36.4% 2.75 -16.8%

Away win 21.4% 30.3% 3.30 -17.6%

Over 2.5 42.5% 29.4% 3.40 +44.5%

Over 3.5 20.9% 14.3% 7.00 +27.8%

BTTS 42.5% 40.0% 2.50 +6.3%

Home O1.5 38.8% 30.8% 3.25 +26.1%

Away O1.5 14.0% 20.0% 5.00 -18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 294 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob42.5%

H 52% / xG 1.3-0.5 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.7%

#2 0–0 16.3%

#3 2–0 14.4%

#4 0–1 7.9%

#5 1–1 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tristan Suarez1.3

San Martin Tucuman0.5

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TRISTAN SUAREZ · PPG 2.00

SAN MARTIN TUCUMAN · PPG 1.23

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tristan Suarez (H) 52.4%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +20.5%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -16.8%

San Martin Tucuman (A) 21.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -17.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tristan Suarez face San Martin Tucuman in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tristan Suarez a 52% chance, the draw 26% and San Martin Tucuman 21%, so Tristan Suarez are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Tristan Suarez and 0.5 for San Martin Tucuman (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tristan Suarez are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.23 for San Martin Tucuman. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +44.5%.

Tristan Suarez vs San Martin Tucuman Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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