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San Telmo vs Los Andes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 28 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:00

San Telmo

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWL

UPCOMING

Los Andes

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.2%0-115.7%0-25.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.2%1-112.7%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.0%2-15.2%2-21.9%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.9%3-11.4%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% 35.7% 2.80 +4.4%

Draw 32.7% 40.0% 2.50 -18.3%

Away win 30.0% 34.7% 2.88 -13.6%

Over 2.5 34.6% 32.3% 3.10 +7.3%

Over 3.5 18.2% 15.4% 6.50 +11.0%

BTTS 42.4% 45.5% 2.20 -6.7%

Home O1.5 30.8% 28.6% 3.50 +7.8%

Away O1.5 18.8% 26.7% 3.75 -17.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 294 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob42.4%

D 33% / xG 0.8-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.2%

#2 1–0 17.2%

#3 0–1 15.7%

#4 1–1 12.7%

#5 2–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Telmo0.8

Los Andes0.7

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.6% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN TELMO · PPG 1.38

LOS ANDES · PPG 1.25

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.07, combined xG 1.55 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

San Telmo (H) 37.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +4.4%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -18.3%

Los Andes (A) 30.0%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Telmo face Los Andes in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Telmo a 37% chance, the draw 33% and Los Andes 30%, so San Telmo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for San Telmo and 0.7 for Los Andes (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Telmo are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.25 for Los Andes. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.0%.

San Telmo vs Los Andes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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