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Valladolid vs Eibar Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 35 ·Monday, April 13, 2026

Valladolid

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Eibar

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-111.5%0-25.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.0%1-113.4%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.2%2-17.8%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.2%3-13.0%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.6% 42.7% 2.34 -5.0%

Draw 29.6% 31.7% 3.15 -6.8%

Away win 29.8% 32.8% 3.05 -9.1%

Over 2.5 35.6% 44.4% 2.25 -19.9%

Over 3.5 16.5% 23.8% 4.20 -30.7%

BTTS 42.3% 52.6% 1.90 -19.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob42.3%

H 41% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.0%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–0 12.0%

#4 0–1 11.5%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valladolid1.2

Eibar1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.6% · O3.5 PROB 16.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VALLADOLID · PPG 1.29

EIBAR · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.29) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Valladolid (H) 40.6%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV -5.0%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -6.8%

Eibar (A) 29.8%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valladolid face Eibar in Spain - Segunda División on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valladolid a 41% chance, the draw 30% and Eibar 30%, so Valladolid are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Valladolid and 1.0 for Eibar (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valladolid are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.88 for Eibar.

Valladolid vs Eibar Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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