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Castellon vs Eibar Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 42 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 16:30

Castellon

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Eibar

PPG 1.05 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-110.0%0-24.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.7%1-113.0%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.9%2-18.5%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.9%3-13.7%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 64.9% 1.54 -33.2%

Draw 29.2% 23.8% 4.20 +13.6%

Away win 27.4% 18.2% 5.50 +30.4%

Over 2.5 46.2% 63.7% 1.57 -27.5%

Over 3.5 27.7% 41.7% 2.40 -20.1%

BTTS 47.2% 62.5% 1.60 -24.5%

Home O1.5 37.4% 66.7% 1.50 -43.9%

Away O1.5 24.5% 31.3% 3.20 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

H 43% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 10.6%

#3 1–0 13.7%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 2–1✓ 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Castellon1.3

Eibar0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CASTELLON · PPG 2.00

EIBAR · PPG 1.05

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

47%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=43.4%

Win probability 1X2

Castellon (H) 43.4%

ODDS 1.54 · IMPLIED 64.9% EV -33.2%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +13.6%

Eibar (A) 27.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +30.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Castellon face Eibar in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Castellon a 43% chance, the draw 29% and Eibar 27%, so Castellon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Castellon and 0.9 for Eibar (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Castellon are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.05 for Eibar. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +30.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Castellon vs Eibar Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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