Today / Spain - Segunda División / Real Sociedad B vs Leonesa

Real Sociedad B vs Leonesa Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 42 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 14:15

Real Sociedad B

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Leonesa

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-18.2%0-24.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.7%1-112.3%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.2%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.8%3-14.6%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% 42.7% 2.34 +15.8%

Draw 25.5% 30.8% 3.25 -10.3%

Away win 25.0% 33.3% 3.00 -15.0%

Over 2.5 50.2% 54.6% 1.83 -8.1%

Over 3.5 29.9% 32.3% 3.10 -4.4%

BTTS 53.2% 61.7% 1.62 -13.8%

Home O1.5 44.2% 47.6% 2.10 -7.2%

Away O1.5 25.3% 40.8% 2.45 -22.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.2%

H 50% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.3%

#2 1–0 12.7%

#3 0–0 8.5%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Sociedad B1.5

Leonesa1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL SOCIEDAD B · PPG 1.40

LEONESA · PPG 0.95

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.95)

Win probability 1X2

Real Sociedad B (H) 49.5%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV +15.8%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.3%

Leonesa (A) 25.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Sociedad B face Leonesa in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Sociedad B a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Leonesa 25%, so Real Sociedad B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Real Sociedad B and 1.0 for Leonesa (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Sociedad B are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.95 for Leonesa. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Real Sociedad B vs Leonesa Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División Predictions