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Granada vs Sporting Gijon Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 19:00

Granada

PPG 1.30 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sporting Gijon

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-110.4%0-25.8%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.7%1-113.1%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.4%2-18.2%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.1%3-13.4%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 43.1% 2.32 -16.3%

Draw 27.8% 30.3% 3.30 -5.0%

Away win 36.1% 33.8% 2.96 +6.9%

Over 2.5 48.5% 52.6% 1.90 -7.8%

Over 3.5 27.9% 30.8% 3.25 -5.6%

BTTS 52.0% 59.9% 1.67 -13.2%

Home O1.5 35.6% 45.5% 2.20 -21.7%

Away O1.5 30.6% 39.2% 2.55 -22.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.0%

H 36% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.4%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Granada1.3

Sporting Gijon1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GRANADA · PPG 1.30

SPORTING GIJON · PPG 0.95

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.30) > Away POOR (0.95)

Win probability 1X2

Granada (H) 36.1%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV -16.3%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.0%

Sporting Gijon (A) 36.1%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV +6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Granada face Sporting Gijon in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Granada a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Sporting Gijon 36%, so Granada are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Granada and 1.1 for Sporting Gijon (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Granada are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 0.95 for Sporting Gijon. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Granada vs Sporting Gijon Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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