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Real Zaragoza vs Malaga Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 42 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 16:30

Real Zaragoza

PPG 0.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Malaga

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-113.0%0-29.8%0-35.0%0-4+2.6%1 1-08.1%1-112.2%1-29.3%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-03.8%2-15.8%2-24.4%2-32.2%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.2%3-11.8%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.7% 21.3% 4.70 +4.0%

Draw 26.7% 28.6% 3.50 -3.9%

Away win 50.5% 57.5% 1.74 -12.1%

Over 2.5 48.8% 51.3% 1.95 -4.8%

Over 3.5 28.2% 29.0% 3.45 -1.6%

BTTS 51.9% 54.6% 1.83 -5.0%

Home O1.5 24.3% 27.0% 3.70 -6.0%

Away O1.5 44.8% 54.1% 1.85 -17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob51.9%

A 50% / xG 0.9-1.5 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–1 13.0%

#3 0–0 8.6%

#4 0–2✓ 9.8%

#5 1–2 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Zaragoza0.9

Malaga1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL ZARAGOZA · PPG 0.90

MALAGA · PPG 1.35

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

54%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.90) vs Away AVERAGE (1.35)

Win probability 1X2

Real Zaragoza (H) 22.7%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV +4.0%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.9%

Malaga (A) 50.5%

ODDS 1.74 · IMPLIED 57.5% EV -12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Zaragoza face Malaga in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Zaragoza a 23% chance, the draw 27% and Malaga 51%, so Malaga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Real Zaragoza and 1.5 for Malaga (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Zaragoza are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 1.35 for Malaga. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Real Zaragoza vs Malaga Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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