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Ceuta vs Albacete Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 42 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 14:15

Ceuta

PPG 1.85 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Albacete

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-110.9%0-26.6%0-32.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.7%1-113.0%1-28.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.4%2-17.8%2-24.8%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.5%3-13.1%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 43.1% 2.32 -16.5%

Draw 27.8% 31.3% 3.20 -6.6%

Away win 36.2% 32.3% 3.10 +12.2%

Over 2.5 48.6% 54.6% 1.83 -11.1%

Over 3.5 27.9% 33.3% 3.00 -9.8%

BTTS 54.4% 62.5% 1.60 -13.0%

Home O1.5 33.7% 47.6% 2.10 -29.2%

Away O1.5 34.5% 40.0% 2.50 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 52.7%

Bet Hit 89%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.4%

A 36% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 8.9%

#3 0–1 10.9%

#4 1–0✓ 10.7%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ceuta1.2

Albacete1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CEUTA · PPG 1.85

ALBACETE · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.85) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Ceuta (H) 36.0%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV -16.5%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -6.6%

Albacete (A) 36.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ceuta face Albacete in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ceuta a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Albacete 36%, so Albacete are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Ceuta and 1.2 for Albacete (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ceuta are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 1.40 for Albacete. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Ceuta vs Albacete Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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