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Leganes vs Mirandes Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 42 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 19:00

Leganes

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Mirandes

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-19.7%0-24.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.8%1-112.9%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-18.6%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.8%3-13.8%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.7% 50.0% 2.00 -16.6%

Draw 28.0% 28.6% 3.50 -1.2%

Away win 30.3% 28.6% 3.50 +6.0%

Over 2.5 46.9% 54.6% 1.83 -14.2%

Over 3.5 27.8% 32.3% 3.10 -8.3%

BTTS 51.6% 59.9% 1.67 -13.8%

Home O1.5 38.6% 51.3% 1.95 -24.7%

Away O1.5 26.7% 35.7% 2.80 -15.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 42% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.6%

#3 1–0✓ 12.8%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leganes1.3

Mirandes1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LEGANES · PPG 1.20

MIRANDES · PPG 0.85

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.85)

Win probability 1X2

Leganes (H) 41.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -16.6%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -1.2%

Mirandes (A) 30.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leganes face Mirandes in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leganes a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Mirandes 30%, so Leganes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Leganes and 1.0 for Mirandes (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leganes are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.85 for Mirandes. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Leganes vs Mirandes Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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