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Almeria vs Valladolid Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 42 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 16:30

Almeria

PPG 2.20 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Valladolid

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.6%0-22.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.7%1-19.6%1-25.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.2%3-16.8%3-23.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-15.7%4+-23.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 73.0% 1.37 -26.4%

Draw 22.6% 21.3% 4.70 +3.7%

Away win 23.6% 13.0% 7.70 +49.0%

Over 2.5 61.7% 63.7% 1.57 -3.1%

Over 3.5 38.1% 41.7% 2.40 -8.6%

BTTS 61.0% 57.8% 1.73 +5.5%

Home O1.5 61.3% 71.4% 1.40 -14.2%

Away O1.5 29.9% 25.0% 4.00 +11.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.0%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0✓ 8.7%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almeria2.1

Valladolid1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 38.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMERIA · PPG 2.20

VALLADOLID · PPG 0.85

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs P(Home)=53.7%

Win probability 1X2

Almeria (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.37 · IMPLIED 73.0% EV -26.4%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV +3.7%

Valladolid (A) 23.6%

ODDS 7.70 · IMPLIED 13.0% EV +49.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Almeria face Valladolid in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almeria a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Valladolid 24%, so Almeria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Almeria and 1.1 for Valladolid (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almeria are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.85 for Valladolid. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +49.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Almeria vs Valladolid Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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