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Deportivo vs Las Palmas Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 42 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 16:30

Deportivo

PPG 1.90 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Las Palmas

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-110.8%0-25.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.1%1-113.2%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.6%2-18.1%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.5%3-13.3%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 29.0% 3.45 +58.0%

Draw 28.3% 29.0% 3.45 -1.4%

Away win 25.9% 49.0% 2.04 -28.3%

Over 2.5 46.2% 50.0% 2.00 -7.6%

Over 3.5 27.7% 28.2% 3.55 -1.0%

BTTS 47.2% 56.5% 1.77 -16.5%

Home O1.5 34.7% 33.3% 3.00 +4.1%

Away O1.5 24.1% 47.6% 2.10 -29.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 11.5%

#3 1–0 14.1%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo1.2

Las Palmas0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO · PPG 1.90

LAS PALMAS · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.90) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo (H) 45.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +58.0%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -1.4%

Las Palmas (A) 25.9%

ODDS 2.04 · IMPLIED 49.0% EV -28.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo face Las Palmas in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Las Palmas 26%, so Deportivo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Deportivo and 0.9 for Las Palmas (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.40 for Las Palmas. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +58.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Deportivo vs Las Palmas Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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