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Magallanes vs D. Iquique Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 16:30

Magallanes

PPG 1.17 · HOME

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

D. Iquique

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-16.2%0-23.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.0%1-110.9%1-26.6%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.9%2-19.6%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.7%3-15.7%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.7%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 44.4% 2.25 +9.6%

Draw 24.3% 29.9% 3.35 -11.2%

Away win 27.1% 35.7% 2.80 -14.5%

Over 2.5 60.1% 54.1% 1.85 +11.2%

Over 3.5 36.2% 31.3% 3.20 +15.8%

BTTS 61.0% 59.9% 1.67 +1.9%

Home O1.5 52.6% 46.5% 2.15 +13.1%

Away O1.5 34.1% 40.0% 2.50 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.0%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Magallanes1.8

D. Iquique1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MAGALLANES · PPG 1.17

D. IQUIQUE · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.17) vs P(Home)=48.7%

Win probability 1X2

Magallanes (H) 48.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +9.6%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.2%

D. Iquique (A) 27.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Magallanes face D. Iquique in Chile - Primera B on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Magallanes a 49% chance, the draw 24% and D. Iquique 27%, so Magallanes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Magallanes and 1.2 for D. Iquique (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Magallanes are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.33 for D. Iquique. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.9%. This match finished 4-3.

Magallanes vs D. Iquique Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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