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Recoleta vs San Luis Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 16:30

Recoleta

PPG 1.57 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

San Luis

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.3% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a clear edge.

+26.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.7%0-23.6%0-31.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-06.0%1-19.1%1-27.0%1-33.6%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.8%2-18.9%2-26.9%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.8%3-15.8%3-24.5%3-32.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-14.5%4+-23.4%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 45.5% 2.20 -0.6%

Draw 23.0% 30.3% 3.30 -14.5%

Away win 31.8% 34.5% 2.90 -7.8%

Over 2.5 65.3% 51.8% 1.93 +26.0%

Over 3.5 43.1% 29.9% 3.35 +44.4%

BTTS 63.4% 58.8% 1.70 +7.8%

Home O1.5 58.2% 46.5% 2.15 +25.1%

Away O1.5 45.4% 38.5% 2.60 +18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.4%

H 45% / xG 2.0-1.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Recoleta2.0

San Luis1.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

RECOLETA · PPG 1.57

SAN LUIS · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.57) vs P(Home)=45.2%

Win probability 1X2

Recoleta (H) 45.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -0.6%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -14.5%

San Luis (A) 31.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Recoleta face San Luis in Chile - Primera B on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Recoleta a 45% chance, the draw 23% and San Luis 32%, so Recoleta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Recoleta and 1.5 for San Luis (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Recoleta are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.33 for San Luis. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +44.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Recoleta vs San Luis Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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