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Curico Unido vs Antofagasta Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 14 ·Monday, June 1, 2026, 23:00

Curico Unido

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Antofagasta

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-19.6%0-28.5%0-35.1%0-4+3.4%1 1-06.1%1-110.9%1-29.7%1-35.8%1-4+3.9%2 2-03.5%2-16.2%2-25.6%2-33.3%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.3%3-12.4%3-22.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.3% 40.8% 2.45 -18.4%

Draw 24.0% 29.0% 3.45 -10.3%

Away win 47.7% 40.8% 2.45 +16.9%

Over 2.5 60.1% 58.8% 1.70 +2.2%

Over 3.5 36.2% 36.4% 2.75 -0.4%

BTTS 55.3% 64.5% 1.55 -14.3%

Home O1.5 31.6% 47.6% 2.10 -33.6%

Away O1.5 53.2% 47.6% 2.10 +11.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob55.3%

A 48% / xG 1.1-1.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.5%

#4 0–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Curico Unido1.1

Antofagasta1.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CURICO UNIDO · PPG 1.33

ANTOFAGASTA · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Curico Unido (H) 28.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -18.4%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.3%

Antofagasta (A) 47.7%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Curico Unido face Antofagasta in Chile - Primera B on Monday, June 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Curico Unido a 28% chance, the draw 24% and Antofagasta 48%, so Antofagasta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Curico Unido and 1.8 for Antofagasta (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Curico Unido are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.29 for Antofagasta. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +25.2%.

Curico Unido vs Antofagasta Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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