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S. Wanderers vs Union Espanola Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 16:30

S. Wanderers

PPG 1.83 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Union Espanola

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-15.5%0-22.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.4%1-110.5%1-25.3%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.2%3-16.3%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-14.6%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.8% 45.5% 2.20 +22.8%

Draw 22.9% 28.6% 3.50 -11.9%

Away win 21.4% 35.7% 2.80 -24.1%

Over 2.5 60.1% 60.6% 1.65 -0.8%

Over 3.5 36.2% 38.5% 2.60 -5.9%

BTTS 55.3% 66.7% 1.50 -17.1%

Home O1.5 56.6% 52.4% 1.91 +8.1%

Away O1.5 26.8% 45.5% 2.20 -24.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.3%

H 56% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Wanderers1.9

Union Espanola1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

S. WANDERERS · PPG 1.83

UNION ESPANOLA · PPG 0.67

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.83) vs P(Home)=55.8%

Win probability 1X2

S. Wanderers (H) 55.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +22.8%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.9%

Union Espanola (A) 21.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Wanderers face Union Espanola in Chile - Primera B on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Wanderers a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Union Espanola 21%, so S. Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for S. Wanderers and 1.0 for Union Espanola (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Wanderers are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.67 for Union Espanola. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.8%. This match finished 2-2.

S. Wanderers vs Union Espanola Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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