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U. San Felipe vs Puerto Montt Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 19:00

U. San Felipe

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Puerto Montt

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-115.2%0-29.1%0-33.6%0-4+1.4%1 1-011.1%1-113.2%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-04.8%2-15.7%2-23.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.4%3-11.6%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.0% 39.2% 2.55 -17.2%

Draw 29.2% 31.3% 3.20 -3.9%

Away win 42.8% 39.2% 2.55 +9.1%

Over 2.5 46.2% 48.8% 2.05 -5.3%

Over 3.5 27.7% 27.0% 3.70 +1.5%

BTTS 47.2% 55.6% 1.80 -15.0%

Home O1.5 21.5% 39.2% 2.55 -27.1%

Away O1.5 33.4% 39.2% 2.55 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob47.2%

A 43% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 0–1 15.2%

#4 1–0✓ 11.1%

#5 0–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

U. San Felipe0.9

Puerto Montt1.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

U. SAN FELIPE · PPG 1.50

PUERTO MONTT · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

U. San Felipe (H) 28.0%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -17.2%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.9%

Puerto Montt (A) 42.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

U. San Felipe face Puerto Montt in Chile - Primera B on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives U. San Felipe a 28% chance, the draw 29% and Puerto Montt 43%, so Puerto Montt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for U. San Felipe and 1.2 for Puerto Montt (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, U. San Felipe are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.17 for Puerto Montt. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.1%. This match finished 1-0.

U. San Felipe vs Puerto Montt Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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