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Union Espanola vs U. San Felipe Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 15 ·Monday, June 8, 2026, 23:30

Union Espanola

PPG 2.29 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

U. San Felipe

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-14.2%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.1%1-18.8%1-23.0%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-19.3%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.7%3-16.5%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-15.6%4+-21.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.4% 57.1% 1.75 +5.7%

Draw 20.7% 27.8% 3.60 -15.3%

Away win 18.8% 25.0% 4.00 -14.9%

Over 2.5 55.9% 56.5% 1.77 -1.1%

Over 3.5 36.0% 33.9% 2.95 +6.2%

BTTS 51.8% 59.9% 1.67 -13.5%

Home O1.5 60.4% 57.1% 1.75 +5.7%

Away O1.5 27.6% 33.3% 3.00 -10.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob51.8%

H 60% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.8%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 1–1 8.8%

#4 3–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Espanola2.1

U. San Felipe0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.0%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION ESPANOLA · PPG 2.29

U. SAN FELIPE · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs P(Home)=60.4%

Win probability 1X2

Union Espanola (H) 60.4%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +5.7%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -15.3%

U. San Felipe (A) 18.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Espanola face U. San Felipe in Chile - Primera B on Monday, June 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Espanola a 60% chance, the draw 21% and U. San Felipe 19%, so Union Espanola are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Union Espanola and 0.7 for U. San Felipe (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Espanola are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.43 for U. San Felipe. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.7%. This match finished 2-2.

Union Espanola vs U. San Felipe Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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