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Fiorentina vs Torino Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Fiorentina

PPG 1.04 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

UPCOMING

Torino

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.2% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-19.5%0-26.2%0-32.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.6%1-112.5%1-28.1%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.3%2-18.2%2-25.4%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.8%3-13.6%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 52.6% 1.90 -31.8%

Draw 26.2% 31.3% 3.20 -9.7%

Away win 37.9% 23.0% 4.35 +64.9%

Over 2.5 51.6% 47.6% 2.10 +8.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 26.7% 3.75 +18.5%

BTTS 54.2% 52.6% 1.90 +3.0%

Home O1.5 38.4% 48.8% 2.05 -21.3%

Away O1.5 39.9% 27.4% 3.65 +45.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.2%

A 38% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fiorentina1.3

Torino1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FIORENTINA · PPG 1.04

TORINO · PPG 0.92

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fiorentina (H) 35.9%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -31.8%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.7%

Torino (A) 37.9%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV +64.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fiorentina face Torino in Italy - Serie A on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fiorentina a 36% chance, the draw 26% and Torino 38%, so Torino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Fiorentina and 1.3 for Torino (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fiorentina are averaging 1.04 points per game versus 0.92 for Torino. The best value bet our model finds is TT_AwayO25, with an expected value of +51.5%.

Fiorentina vs Torino Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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