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AS Roma vs Atalanta Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:45

AS Roma

PPG 2.13 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

UPCOMING

Atalanta

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-17.7%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.6%1-112.0%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-19.4%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.1%3-14.9%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 57.8% 1.73 -8.7%

Draw 24.4% 27.8% 3.60 -7.3%

Away win 22.8% 22.2% 4.50 +1.6%

Over 2.5 50.6% 52.4% 1.91 -3.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 31.3% 3.20 -4.9%

BTTS 52.4% 55.6% 1.80 -5.7%

Home O1.5 46.3% 55.6% 1.80 -16.7%

Away O1.5 26.1% 26.7% 3.75 -1.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.4%

H 53% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AS Roma1.6

Atalanta1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AS ROMA · PPG 2.13

ATALANTA · PPG 1.42

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

AS Roma (H) 52.8%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -8.7%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.3%

Atalanta (A) 22.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +1.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

AS Roma face Atalanta in Italy - Serie A on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AS Roma a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Atalanta 23%, so AS Roma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for AS Roma and 1.0 for Atalanta (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AS Roma are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.42 for Atalanta. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.9%.

AS Roma vs Atalanta Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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