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Parma vs Monza Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

Parma

PPG 1.04 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

UPCOMING

Monza

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 51% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-19.9%0-26.0%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.7%1-112.8%1-27.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.9%2-18.3%2-25.0%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.0%3-13.6%3-22.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% 40.0% 2.50 -2.3%

Draw 26.8% 34.5% 2.90 -13.4%

Away win 34.0% 34.5% 2.90 -1.4%

Over 2.5 50.6% 43.5% 2.30 +16.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.1% 4.33 +14.6%

BTTS 52.9% 50.0% 2.00 +5.8%

Home O1.5 38.4% 38.2% 2.62 +0.6%

Away O1.5 35.4% 33.3% 3.00 +6.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.9%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 10.7%

#3 0–0 8.3%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 0–1 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Parma1.3

Monza1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PARMA · PPG 1.04

MONZA · PPG 1.25

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

51%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.09, combined xG 2.49 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Parma (H) 39.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -2.3%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -13.4%

Monza (A) 34.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Parma face Monza in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Parma a 39% chance, the draw 27% and Monza 34%, so Parma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Parma and 1.2 for Monza (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Parma are averaging 1.04 points per game versus 1.25 for Monza. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.4%.

Parma vs Monza Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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