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Inter vs Napoli Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:00

Inter

PPG 2.22 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

UPCOMING

Napoli

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

WL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-17.4%0-24.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.9%1-111.8%1-26.4%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.5%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.7%3-15.1%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 60.6% 1.65 -20.8%

Draw 25.4% 27.0% 3.70 -3.6%

Away win 26.5% 19.2% 5.20 +22.7%

Over 2.5 51.8% 50.0% 2.00 +3.6%

Over 3.5 31.6% 28.2% 3.55 +12.2%

BTTS 52.9% 51.3% 1.95 +3.1%

Home O1.5 47.8% 54.6% 1.83 -12.5%

Away O1.5 33.0% 23.8% 4.20 +38.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Inter1.6

Napoli1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

INTER · PPG 2.22

NAPOLI · PPG 1.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Inter (H) 48.0%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -20.8%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -3.6%

Napoli (A) 26.5%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +22.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Inter face Napoli in Italy - Serie A on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inter a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Napoli 27%, so Inter are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Inter and 1.1 for Napoli (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inter are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.88 for Napoli. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +43.7%.

Inter vs Napoli Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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