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Bologna vs Sassuolo Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:00

Bologna

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

UPCOMING

Sassuolo

PPG 1.01 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-110.7%0-26.1%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.6%1-113.1%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.1%2-18.0%2-24.5%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.9%3-13.3%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 50.0% 2.00 -27.2%

Draw 27.9% 30.8% 3.25 -5.6%

Away win 35.7% 27.0% 3.70 +32.1%

Over 2.5 44.5% 50.0% 2.00 -11.0%

Over 3.5 26.0% 26.7% 3.75 -1.5%

BTTS 49.9% 54.6% 1.83 -8.7%

Home O1.5 33.7% 50.0% 2.00 -32.6%

Away O1.5 33.2% 29.4% 3.40 +12.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.9%

H 36% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.5%

#3 0–1 10.7%

#4 1–0 11.6%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bologna1.2

Sassuolo1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BOLOGNA · PPG 1.07

SASSUOLO · PPG 1.01

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.10, combined xG 2.35 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bologna (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -27.2%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -5.6%

Sassuolo (A) 35.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +32.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bologna face Sassuolo in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bologna a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Sassuolo 36%, so Bologna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Bologna and 1.1 for Sassuolo (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bologna are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.01 for Sassuolo. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +28.2%.

Bologna vs Sassuolo Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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