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Juventus vs AC Milan Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 18:45

Juventus

PPG 1.99 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

UPCOMING

AC Milan

PPG 2.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-110.2%0-25.4%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.3%1-113.1%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.9%2-18.4%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.4%3-13.6%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.4% 47.6% 2.10 -13.1%

Draw 28.4% 32.3% 3.10 -7.2%

Away win 30.2% 28.6% 3.50 +5.7%

Over 2.5 44.5% 47.6% 2.10 -6.6%

Over 3.5 25.9% 26.7% 3.75 -1.7%

BTTS 49.9% 54.6% 1.83 -8.7%

Home O1.5 38.4% 45.5% 2.20 -15.5%

Away O1.5 32.5% 29.4% 3.40 +10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.9%

H 41% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 0–0 9.6%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventus1.3

AC Milan1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUS · PPG 1.99

AC MILAN · PPG 2.02

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.23, combined xG 2.34 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Juventus (H) 41.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -13.1%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.2%

AC Milan (A) 30.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventus face AC Milan in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventus a 41% chance, the draw 28% and AC Milan 30%, so Juventus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Juventus and 1.1 for AC Milan (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventus are averaging 1.99 points per game versus 2.02 for AC Milan. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +26.5%.

Juventus vs AC Milan Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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