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Frosinone vs Venezia Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

Frosinone

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LW ···

UPCOMING

Venezia

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-19.1%0-24.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.7%1-112.7%1-26.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-18.9%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.2%3-14.2%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 37.0% 2.70 +29.1%

Draw 27.3% 31.3% 3.20 -7.6%

Away win 24.9% 40.0% 2.50 -22.7%

Over 2.5 47.3% 55.6% 1.80 -14.9%

Over 3.5 27.6% 33.3% 3.00 -10.3%

BTTS 49.5% 59.9% 1.67 -17.3%

Home O1.5 39.8% 42.0% 2.38 -5.3%

Away O1.5 30.2% 45.5% 2.20 -33.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.5%

H 48% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 12.7%

#3 0–0 9.1%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Frosinone1.4

Venezia1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.3% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FROSINONE · PPG 1.25

VENEZIA · PPG 1.25

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.40, combined xG 2.40 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Frosinone (H) 47.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +29.1%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.6%

Venezia (A) 24.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -22.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Frosinone face Venezia in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Frosinone a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Venezia 25%, so Frosinone are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Frosinone and 1.0 for Venezia (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Frosinone are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.25 for Venezia. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +11.9%.

Frosinone vs Venezia Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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