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Sporting Gijon vs Girona Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:15

Sporting Gijon

PPG 1.81 · HOME

LAST 5

DWW ··

UPCOMING

Girona

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-18.5%0-24.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.8%1-112.4%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.1%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.6%3-14.5%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 35.7% 2.80 +29.6%

Draw 26.2% 31.3% 3.20 -9.7%

Away win 27.5% 40.3% 2.48 -19.1%

Over 2.5 50.5% 51.8% 1.93 -2.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 30.3% 3.30 -3.2%

BTTS 52.9% 59.9% 1.67 -11.7%

Home O1.5 39.9% 40.8% 2.45 -2.2%

Away O1.5 27.6% 43.5% 2.30 -21.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting Gijon1.5

Girona1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING GIJON · PPG 1.81

GIRONA · PPG 1.25

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.49, combined xG 2.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sporting Gijon (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +29.6%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.7%

Girona (A) 27.5%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting Gijon face Girona in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting Gijon a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Girona 28%, so Sporting Gijon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sporting Gijon and 1.0 for Girona (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting Gijon are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.25 for Girona. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +28.9%.

Sporting Gijon vs Girona Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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