Today / Spain - Segunda División / Castellón vs Albacete

Castellón vs Albacete Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:30

Castellón

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

WDW ··

UPCOMING

Albacete

PPG 1.16 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLL ··

// Model verdict

Home 61% chance

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-17.4%0-23.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.2%1-111.8%1-25.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.4%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.6%3-15.0%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 64.5% 1.55 -18.2%

Draw 24.5% 25.6% 3.90 -2.7%

Away win 22.7% 20.0% 5.00 +8.1%

Over 2.5 50.4% 59.9% 1.67 -15.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 38.2% 2.62 -14.9%

BTTS 50.0% 57.1% 1.75 -12.5%

Home O1.5 47.6% 63.7% 1.57 -25.3%

Away O1.5 25.8% 26.7% 3.75 -1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.0%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.2%

#2 1–1 11.8%

#3 2–0 10.6%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Castellón1.6

Albacete0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CASTELLÓN · PPG 1.69

ALBACETE · PPG 1.16

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Castellón (H) 52.8%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -18.2%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -2.7%

Albacete (A) 22.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Castellón face Albacete in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Castellón a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Albacete 23%, so Castellón are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Castellón and 0.9 for Albacete (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Castellón are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.16 for Albacete. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +20.4%.

Castellón vs Albacete Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División Predictions