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AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:30

AD Ceuta FC

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

LLL ··

UPCOMING

Celta de Vigo II

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-110.0%0-26.9%0-33.2%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.9%1-112.4%1-28.6%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.6%2-17.7%2-25.4%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.3%3-13.2%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.8% 48.1% 2.08 -35.9%

Draw 24.3% 29.0% 3.45 -9.7%

Away win 45.0% 29.9% 3.35 +50.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 33.3% 3.00 -4.9%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 35.5% 51.3% 1.95 -30.8%

Away O1.5 42.2% 37.7% 2.65 +11.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 0–1 10.0%

#4 0–2 6.9%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AD Ceuta FC1.2

Celta de Vigo II1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AD CEUTA FC · PPG 1.47

CELTA DE VIGO II · PPG 1.42

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

AD Ceuta FC (H) 30.8%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -35.9%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.7%

Celta de Vigo II (A) 45.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +50.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

AD Ceuta FC face Celta de Vigo II in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AD Ceuta FC a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Celta de Vigo II 45%, so Celta de Vigo II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for AD Ceuta FC and 1.4 for Celta de Vigo II (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AD Ceuta FC are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.42 for Celta de Vigo II. The best value bet our model finds is RES_A/O15, with an expected value of +27.3%.

AD Ceuta FC vs Celta de Vigo II Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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