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Eldense vs Mallorca Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 19:00

Eldense

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

LDL ··

UPCOMING

Mallorca

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-19.9%0-25.8%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.9%1-112.8%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.1%2-18.4%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.1%3-13.6%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 29.0% 3.45 +26.6%

Draw 26.6% 30.3% 3.30 -7.3%

Away win 36.7% 48.1% 2.08 -23.7%

Over 2.5 50.6% 50.0% 2.00 +1.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.0% 3.45 -0.6%

BTTS 52.9% 57.8% 1.73 -8.5%

Home O1.5 38.4% 33.9% 2.95 +13.3%

Away O1.5 33.2% 47.6% 2.10 -30.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.9%

H 37% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–1 9.9%

#3 0–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eldense1.3

Mallorca1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ELDENSE · PPG 1.42

MALLORCA · PPG 1.25

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.12, combined xG 2.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Eldense (H) 36.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +26.6%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.3%

Mallorca (A) 36.7%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -23.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eldense face Mallorca in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eldense a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Mallorca 37%, so Eldense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Eldense and 1.2 for Mallorca (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eldense are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.25 for Mallorca. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +20.5%.

Eldense vs Mallorca Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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