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Burgos vs Real Sociedad II Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 17:00

Burgos

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

WLD ··

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Real Sociedad II

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWD ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-17.8%0-24.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.5%1-112.1%1-26.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.4%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.6%3-14.8%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 56.8% 1.76 -18.5%

Draw 26.2% 29.9% 3.35 -7.3%

Away win 27.5% 20.4% 4.90 +20.8%

Over 2.5 50.6% 47.6% 2.10 +6.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.3% 3.80 +5.4%

BTTS 52.9% 52.4% 1.91 +1.0%

Home O1.5 44.9% 51.3% 1.95 -12.4%

Away O1.5 32.5% 25.0% 4.00 +30.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Burgos1.6

Real Sociedad II1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BURGOS · PPG 1.92

REAL SOCIEDAD II · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.50 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Burgos (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.76 · IMPLIED 56.8% EV -18.5%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -7.3%

Real Sociedad II (A) 27.5%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Burgos face Real Sociedad II in Spain - Segunda División on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Burgos a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Real Sociedad II 28%, so Burgos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Burgos and 1.1 for Real Sociedad II (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Burgos are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.40 for Real Sociedad II. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +30.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Burgos vs Real Sociedad II Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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