Today / Spain - Segunda División / Eibar vs Granada CF

Eibar vs Granada CF Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 12:00

Eibar

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

LWW ··

UPCOMING

Granada CF

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 50% chance

Model probability 50.9% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-110.2%0-25.3%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.5%1-113.1%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.0%2-18.4%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.4%3-13.6%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 50.0% 2.00 -22.2%

Draw 27.6% 31.3% 3.20 -7.0%

Away win 33.5% 28.6% 3.50 +17.3%

Over 2.5 49.8% 44.4% 2.25 +12.0%

Over 3.5 27.9% 25.0% 4.00 +7.0%

BTTS 50.9% 50.0% 2.00 +1.8%

Home O1.5 38.4% 44.4% 2.25 -13.6%

Away O1.5 32.5% 26.7% 3.75 +21.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.9%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 0–0 9.8%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eibar1.3

Granada CF1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

EIBAR · PPG 1.82

GRANADA CF · PPG 1.43

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.23, combined xG 2.33 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Eibar (H) 38.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -22.2%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.0%

Granada CF (A) 33.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eibar face Granada CF in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eibar a 39% chance, the draw 28% and Granada CF 34%, so Eibar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Eibar and 1.0 for Granada CF (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eibar are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.43 for Granada CF. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +30.0%.

Eibar vs Granada CF Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División Predictions