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Las Palmas vs Leganes Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 4 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:30

Las Palmas

PPG 1.97 · HOME

LAST 5

WWL ··

UPCOMING

Leganes

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-18.9%0-24.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.4%1-112.6%1-26.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.8%2-19.0%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.2%3-14.2%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 54.1% 1.85 -17.3%

Draw 26.2% 29.4% 3.40 -6.6%

Away win 29.1% 23.3% 4.30 +15.1%

Over 2.5 50.6% 50.0% 2.00 +1.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 28.6% 3.50 +0.3%

BTTS 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

Home O1.5 39.9% 51.3% 1.95 -22.2%

Away O1.5 31.8% 28.6% 3.50 +11.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 12.4%

#3 0–0 8.7%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Las Palmas1.4

Leganes1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LAS PALMAS · PPG 1.97

LEGANES · PPG 1.36

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.40, combined xG 2.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Las Palmas (H) 44.7%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -17.3%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.6%

Leganes (A) 29.1%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +15.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Las Palmas face Leganes in Spain - Segunda División on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Las Palmas a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Leganes 29%, so Las Palmas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Las Palmas and 1.0 for Leganes (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Las Palmas are averaging 1.97 points per game versus 1.36 for Leganes. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.4%.

Las Palmas vs Leganes Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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