Today / Spain - Segunda División / Real Sociedad II vs Tenerife

Real Sociedad II vs Tenerife Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

Real Sociedad II

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

LWD ··

UPCOMING

Tenerife

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-19.8%0-25.7%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.0%1-112.8%1-27.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.3%2-18.4%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.2%3-13.7%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.7% 38.8% 2.58 -0.1%

Draw 26.1% 31.7% 3.15 -10.7%

Away win 35.2% 36.5% 2.74 -3.5%

Over 2.5 50.6% 47.6% 2.10 +6.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.3% 3.80 +5.4%

BTTS 52.9% 56.5% 1.77 -6.4%

Home O1.5 38.4% 39.2% 2.55 -2.1%

Away O1.5 33.2% 37.7% 2.65 -12.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.9%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 11.0%

#3 0–1 9.8%

#4 0–0 8.4%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Sociedad II1.3

Tenerife1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL SOCIEDAD II · PPG 1.18

TENERIFE · PPG 1.75

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.15, combined xG 2.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Real Sociedad II (H) 38.7%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -0.1%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -10.7%

Tenerife (A) 35.2%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV -3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Sociedad II face Tenerife in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Sociedad II a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Tenerife 35%, so Real Sociedad II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Real Sociedad II and 1.2 for Tenerife (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Sociedad II are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.75 for Tenerife. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.3%.

Real Sociedad II vs Tenerife Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División Predictions