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Almeria vs Cadiz Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 19:00

Almeria

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

WLL ··

UPCOMING

Cadiz

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDD ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-16.6%0-23.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.7%1-111.3%1-25.5%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.7%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.8%3-15.6%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.5%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 66.7% 1.50 -21.7%

Draw 24.2% 25.0% 4.00 -1.9%

Away win 23.6% 17.2% 5.80 +22.1%

Over 2.5 51.6% 57.1% 1.75 -9.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 36.4% 2.75 -13.1%

BTTS 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

Home O1.5 49.9% 61.7% 1.62 -19.2%

Away O1.5 26.5% 25.0% 4.00 +3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 52% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almeria1.7

Cadiz1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMERIA · PPG 2.11

CADIZ · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Almeria (H) 52.2%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -21.7%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -1.9%

Cadiz (A) 23.6%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Almeria face Cadiz in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almeria a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Cadiz 24%, so Almeria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Almeria and 1.0 for Cadiz (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almeria are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.12 for Cadiz. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +20.5%.

Almeria vs Cadiz Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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