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Oviedo vs Burgos Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:15

Oviedo

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

DLW ··

UPCOMING

Burgos

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLD ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-111.2%0-25.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.1%1-113.3%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.4%2-17.9%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.3%3-13.1%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 52.4% 1.91 -18.8%

Draw 28.1% 33.3% 3.00 -9.4%

Away win 29.4% 25.0% 4.00 +10.6%

Over 2.5 43.3% 38.5% 2.60 +12.6%

Over 3.5 22.5% 20.0% 5.00 +7.5%

BTTS 49.9% 46.5% 2.15 +7.3%

Home O1.5 33.0% 42.0% 2.38 -21.5%

Away O1.5 26.1% 22.2% 4.50 +10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.9%

H 42% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.1%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–0 11.9%

#4 0–1 11.2%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oviedo1.2

Burgos0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.3% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OVIEDO · PPG 1.21

BURGOS · PPG 1.32

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.25, combined xG 2.13 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Oviedo (H) 42.5%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -18.8%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.4%

Burgos (A) 29.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +10.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oviedo face Burgos in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oviedo a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Burgos 29%, so Oviedo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Oviedo and 0.9 for Burgos (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oviedo are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.32 for Burgos. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +33.5%.

Oviedo vs Burgos Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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