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Juan Pablo II College vs Alianza Lima Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 20:00

Juan Pablo II College

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWW

UPCOMING

Alianza Lima

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 55.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-111.1%0-28.7%0-34.5%0-4+2.5%1 1-07.7%1-112.0%1-29.4%1-34.9%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.1%2-16.5%2-25.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.5%3-12.3%3-21.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.8% 21.7% 4.60 +41.7%

Draw 24.3% 28.6% 3.50 -9.0%

Away win 45.0% 58.8% 1.70 -23.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 30.8% 3.25 +3.0%

BTTS 55.2% 57.1% 1.75 -3.4%

Home O1.5 30.8% 26.7% 3.75 +15.5%

Away O1.5 47.9% 57.8% 1.73 -17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.2%

A 45% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 11.1%

#4 0–2 8.7%

#5 2–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juan Pablo II College1.1

Alianza Lima1.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

JUAN PABLO II COLLEGE · PPG 1.33

ALIANZA LIMA · PPG 1.75

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Juan Pablo II College (H) 30.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +41.7%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.0%

Alianza Lima (A) 45.0%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juan Pablo II College face Alianza Lima in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juan Pablo II College a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Alianza Lima 45%, so Alianza Lima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Juan Pablo II College and 1.6 for Alianza Lima (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juan Pablo II College are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.75 for Alianza Lima. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +23.7%.

Juan Pablo II College vs Alianza Lima Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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