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Sport Huancayo vs Sport Boys Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 20:00

Sport Huancayo

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLW

UPCOMING

Sport Boys

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-19.3%0-24.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.6%1-112.7%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.0%2-18.7%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.6%3-14.0%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 59.5% 1.68 -24.9%

Draw 25.9% 26.3% 3.80 -0.9%

Away win 29.4% 21.1% 4.75 +23.8%

Over 2.5 50.4% 52.6% 1.90 -4.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 30.8% 3.25 -4.0%

BTTS 51.1% 54.6% 1.83 -6.5%

Home O1.5 39.5% 56.5% 1.77 -30.1%

Away O1.5 25.0% 27.0% 3.70 -4.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 9.2%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.1%

H 45% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.6%

#2 1–1 12.7%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 0–1 9.3%

#5 2–0 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sport Huancayo1.4

Sport Boys0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORT HUANCAYO · PPG 1.64

SPORT BOYS · PPG 0.73

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sport Huancayo (H) 44.7%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -24.9%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -0.9%

Sport Boys (A) 29.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +23.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sport Huancayo face Sport Boys in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sport Huancayo a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Sport Boys 29%, so Sport Huancayo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sport Huancayo and 0.9 for Sport Boys (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sport Huancayo are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 0.73 for Sport Boys. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.5%.

Sport Huancayo vs Sport Boys Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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