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Universitario vs Comerciantes Unidos Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 01:30

Universitario

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

UPCOMING

Comerciantes Unidos

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 68% chance

Model probability 66.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-13.9%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.4%1-18.6%1-23.3%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.5%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.2%3-17.0%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-16.5%4+-22.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.4% 77.5% 1.29 -15.6%

Draw 19.3% 20.8% 4.80 -4.4%

Away win 15.3% 10.0% 10.00 +31.8%

Over 2.5 60.6% 57.1% 1.75 +6.0%

Over 3.5 37.6% 36.4% 2.75 +3.4%

BTTS 53.2% 45.5% 2.20 +17.0%

Home O1.5 66.1% 69.4% 1.44 -4.8%

Away O1.5 20.5% 12.5% 8.00 +38.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.2%

H 65% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.5%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 1–1 8.6%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Universitario2.2

Comerciantes Unidos0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSITARIO · PPG 2.33

COMERCIANTES UNIDOS · PPG 0.75

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

68%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.45 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Universitario (H) 65.4%

ODDS 1.29 · IMPLIED 77.5% EV -15.6%

Draw 19.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -4.4%

Comerciantes Unidos (A) 15.3%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +31.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Universitario face Comerciantes Unidos in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Universitario a 65% chance, the draw 19% and Comerciantes Unidos 15%, so Universitario are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Universitario and 0.8 for Comerciantes Unidos (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Universitario are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.75 for Comerciantes Unidos. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +38.4%.

Universitario vs Comerciantes Unidos Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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