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FBC Melgar vs ADT Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 23:30

FBC Melgar

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDL

UPCOMING

ADT

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

// Model verdict

Home 71% chance

Model probability 66.4% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-13.2%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.9%1-17.7%1-23.0%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-19.3%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.7%3-17.5%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-010.4%4+-18.0%4+-23.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.4% 73.5% 1.36 -9.7%

Draw 19.3% 22.2% 4.50 -7.9%

Away win 14.3% 13.3% 7.50 +4.3%

Over 2.5 61.5% 59.9% 1.67 +2.7%

Over 3.5 40.1% 38.2% 2.62 +5.1%

BTTS 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

Home O1.5 66.3% 66.7% 1.50 -0.5%

Away O1.5 21.8% 22.2% 4.50 -1.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.9%

H 66% / xG 2.4-0.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.0%

#2 1–1 7.7%

#3 3–0 9.7%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 1–0 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FBC Melgar2.4

ADT0.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.5% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FBC MELGAR · PPG 1.92

ADT · PPG 0.64

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

71%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.64 for Home, form 1.92 vs 0.64 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FBC Melgar (H) 66.4%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -9.7%

Draw 19.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -7.9%

ADT (A) 14.3%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FBC Melgar face ADT in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FBC Melgar a 66% chance, the draw 19% and ADT 14%, so FBC Melgar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for FBC Melgar and 0.8 for ADT (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FBC Melgar are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 0.64 for ADT. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +12.0%.

FBC Melgar vs ADT Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions