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Cusco vs UCV Moquegua Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 23:00

Cusco

PPG 2.36 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

UPCOMING

UCV Moquegua

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.3% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-14.8%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.0%1-19.5%1-23.2%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-19.3%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.0%3-16.1%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-14.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 76.9% 1.30 -25.5%

Draw 21.3% 19.6% 5.10 +5.2%

Away win 21.4% 10.4% 9.60 +63.3%

Over 2.5 53.8% 58.8% 1.70 -8.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 35.7% 2.80 -11.2%

BTTS 50.4% 47.6% 2.10 +5.8%

Home O1.5 55.8% 70.4% 1.42 -20.8%

Away O1.5 18.8% 17.4% 5.75 +4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 9.2%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob50.4%

H 57% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.8%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 1–1 9.5%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cusco2.0

UCV Moquegua0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CUSCO · PPG 2.36

UCV MOQUEGUA · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.29 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cusco (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -25.5%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +5.2%

UCV Moquegua (A) 21.4%

ODDS 9.60 · IMPLIED 10.4% EV +63.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cusco face UCV Moquegua in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cusco a 57% chance, the draw 21% and UCV Moquegua 21%, so Cusco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Cusco and 0.7 for UCV Moquegua (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cusco are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 0.67 for UCV Moquegua. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +12.0%.

Cusco vs UCV Moquegua Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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