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Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atletico Grau Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 18:30

Deportivo Garcilaso

PPG 2.42 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

UPCOMING

Atletico Grau

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWW

// Model verdict

Home 61% chance

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-16.6%0-21.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-020.3%1-110.0%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.4%2-17.6%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-07.8%3-13.8%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-12.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 63.7% 1.57 -15.8%

Draw 24.9% 28.6% 3.50 -7.7%

Away win 21.4% 17.2% 5.80 +14.5%

Over 2.5 42.7% 51.3% 1.95 -16.7%

Over 3.5 20.9% 29.4% 3.40 -17.4%

BTTS 42.4% 52.4% 1.91 -19.0%

Home O1.5 39.9% 57.8% 1.73 -31.0%

Away O1.5 14.0% 22.2% 4.50 -22.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob42.4%

H 54% / xG 1.5-0.5 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.3%

#2 2–0 15.4%

#3 0–0 13.4%

#4 0–1 6.6%

#5 1–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Garcilaso1.5

Atletico Grau0.5

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO GARCILASO · PPG 2.42

ATLETICO GRAU · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.02 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Garcilaso (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -15.8%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.7%

Atletico Grau (A) 21.4%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Garcilaso face Atletico Grau in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Garcilaso a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Atletico Grau 21%, so Deportivo Garcilaso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Deportivo Garcilaso and 0.5 for Atletico Grau (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Garcilaso are averaging 2.42 points per game versus 0.75 for Atletico Grau.

Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atletico Grau Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions