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Sporting Cristal vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:00

Sporting Cristal

PPG 2.09 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLL

UPCOMING

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-13.2%0-21.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.1%1-17.8%1-24.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.6%2-19.5%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.0%3-17.7%3-24.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-18.5%4+-24.6%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.2% 77.5% 1.29 -22.3%

Draw 18.8% 20.0% 5.00 -3.6%

Away win 21.0% 11.1% 9.00 +53.4%

Over 2.5 67.5% 69.4% 1.44 -2.8%

Over 3.5 45.0% 47.6% 2.10 -5.5%

BTTS 61.5% 55.6% 1.80 +10.7%

Home O1.5 66.3% 76.9% 1.30 -13.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 22.2% 4.50 +49.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.5%

H 60% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.5%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 3–1 7.7%

#5 3–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting Cristal2.4

Club Deportivo Los Chankas1.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.5% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING CRISTAL · PPG 2.09

CLUB DEPORTIVO LOS CHANKAS · PPG 1.18

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

69%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.35 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sporting Cristal (H) 60.2%

ODDS 1.29 · IMPLIED 77.5% EV -22.3%

Draw 18.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -3.6%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (A) 21.0%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +53.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting Cristal face Club Deportivo Los Chankas in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting Cristal a 60% chance, the draw 19% and Club Deportivo Los Chankas 21%, so Sporting Cristal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Sporting Cristal and 1.1 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting Cristal are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 1.18 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +49.8%.

Sporting Cristal vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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