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ST Mirren vs Celtic Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 19:00

ST Mirren

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDW ·

UPCOMING

Celtic

PPG 1.96 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-19.5%0-26.6%0-33.0%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.9%1-112.3%1-28.5%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.7%2-18.0%2-25.5%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.5%3-13.4%3-22.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% 18.2% 5.50 +92.5%

Draw 23.6% 22.7% 4.40 +2.3%

Away win 41.4% 69.4% 1.44 -40.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 69.4% 1.44 -22.5%

Over 3.5 32.3% 47.6% 2.10 -32.2%

BTTS 55.9% 63.7% 1.57 -12.2%

Home O1.5 38.4% 30.8% 3.25 +24.8%

Away O1.5 42.2% 71.4% 1.40 -40.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.9%

A 41% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 0–1 9.5%

#4 2–1 8.0%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ST Mirren1.3

Celtic1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ST MIRREN · PPG 1.50

CELTIC · PPG 1.96

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

ST Mirren (H) 35.0%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +92.5%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +2.3%

Celtic (A) 41.4%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -40.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

ST Mirren face Celtic in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ST Mirren a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Celtic 41%, so Celtic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for ST Mirren and 1.4 for Celtic (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ST Mirren are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.96 for Celtic. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +77.4%.

ST Mirren vs Celtic Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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