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ST Johnstone vs Hibernian Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00

ST Johnstone

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLD ·

UPCOMING

Hibernian

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.2%0-24.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.1%1-110.8%1-27.1%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.4%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.1%3-15.4%3-23.6%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.5%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 36.4% 2.75 +24.9%

Draw 24.5% 32.3% 3.10 -14.4%

Away win 30.1% 40.0% 2.50 -24.8%

Over 2.5 59.6% 52.4% 1.91 +13.8%

Over 3.5 36.4% 31.3% 3.20 +16.5%

BTTS 61.5% 59.9% 1.67 +2.7%

Home O1.5 49.9% 42.0% 2.38 +18.8%

Away O1.5 42.2% 44.4% 2.25 -5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 45% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ST Johnstone1.7

Hibernian1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ST JOHNSTONE · PPG 1.75

HIBERNIAN · PPG 1.89

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

ST Johnstone (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +24.9%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.4%

Hibernian (A) 30.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

ST Johnstone face Hibernian in Scotland - Premiership on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ST Johnstone a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Hibernian 30%, so ST Johnstone are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for ST Johnstone and 1.3 for Hibernian (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ST Johnstone are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.89 for Hibernian. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +42.5%.

ST Johnstone vs Hibernian Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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