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Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00

Heart Of Midlothian

PPG 2.43 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWW ·

UPCOMING

Dundee

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLD

// Model verdict

Home 64% chance

Model probability 56.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-15.3%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.5%1-110.2%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.7%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.6%3-16.2%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-14.6%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.7% 66.7% 1.50 -14.9%

Draw 22.1% 23.8% 4.20 -4.3%

Away win 21.2% 17.2% 5.80 +13.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 63.7% 1.57 -15.5%

Over 3.5 31.8% 42.0% 2.38 -24.3%

BTTS 52.9% 58.8% 1.70 -10.1%

Home O1.5 55.8% 66.7% 1.50 -16.3%

Away O1.5 23.5% 28.6% 3.50 -10.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.9%

H 57% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 1–1 10.2%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heart Of Midlothian1.9

Dundee0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HEART OF MIDLOTHIAN · PPG 2.43

DUNDEE · PPG 1.07

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

64%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.09 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Heart Of Midlothian (H) 56.7%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -14.9%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -4.3%

Dundee (A) 21.2%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Heart Of Midlothian face Dundee in Scotland - Premiership on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heart Of Midlothian a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Dundee 21%, so Heart Of Midlothian are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Heart Of Midlothian and 0.8 for Dundee (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heart Of Midlothian are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 1.07 for Dundee. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.5%.

Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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