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Dundee Utd vs Falkirk Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Dundee Utd

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWL

UPCOMING

Falkirk

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-19.3%0-25.4%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.9%1-112.7%1-27.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.4%2-18.7%2-25.0%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.4%3-13.9%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 50.0% 2.00 -12.2%

Draw 26.3% 27.4% 3.65 -2.4%

Away win 29.8% 29.9% 3.35 -0.1%

Over 2.5 50.9% 60.6% 1.65 -16.0%

Over 3.5 30.9% 37.7% 2.65 -18.1%

BTTS 54.6% 63.7% 1.57 -14.3%

Home O1.5 39.5% 55.6% 1.80 -28.9%

Away O1.5 33.2% 40.8% 2.45 -18.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 10.9%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 0–0 8.0%

#5 2–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dundee Utd1.4

Falkirk1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.9% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNDEE UTD · PPG 1.20

FALKIRK · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dundee Utd (H) 43.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -12.2%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -2.4%

Falkirk (A) 29.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dundee Utd face Falkirk in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dundee Utd a 44% chance, the draw 26% and Falkirk 30%, so Dundee Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dundee Utd and 1.2 for Falkirk (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dundee Utd are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.11 for Falkirk.

Dundee Utd vs Falkirk Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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